Ukraine Pins Hopes on Putin Exasperating Trump’s Stance

The ongoing war in Ukraine has highlighted contrasting assumptions held by U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian officials regarding a potential peace deal. Ukraine, wary of Trump’s approach, is hoping that the U.S. president will become frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intransigence and back Ukraine more directly. Kyiv fears that Putin will demand total surrender, a stance Trump, with his self-proclaimed dealmaker persona, would reject.

Trump, on the other hand, believes he can pressure Putin into a favorable settlement by leveraging economic tools, particularly sanctions and tariffs, to intensify Russia’s economic pain. He recently warned Putin via social media about the severe economic consequences Russia could face if it doesn’t negotiate, signaling a willingness to unleash even more sanctions. In response, Putin has started to praise Trump, suggesting he’s open to talks — a tactic likely aimed at manipulating Trump into a deal.

Trump’s strategy is guided by his special envoy, retired General Keith Kellogg, who sees economic pressure as the path to peace. This approach contrasts with calls from some of Trump’s loyalists, like former strategist Steve Bannon, who advocate halting military aid to Ukraine entirely. Despite Ukraine’s unease over Trump’s approach, there’s hope that his desire to strike a deal will eventually lead him to see that Putin isn’t willing to make meaningful concessions.

However, Ukraine’s anxiety stems from the possibility that Putin could manipulate Trump with flattery, drawing out negotiations to Russia’s advantage. While Trump’s threats of economic punishment highlight Russia’s worsening economic situation — with inflation rising and oil revenue declining — many experts remain skeptical that Putin is ready to negotiate. Analysts suggest that the war has hardened Putin’s resolve, and there is little incentive for him to end it now, especially since the war has become profitable for many within Russia’s elite.

Moreover, Russia’s consistent military gains and the lack of domestic pressure to end the war further reduce the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. Some analysts believe that Putin may be able to string Trump along, buying time and strengthening his position on the battlefield, making it more difficult for Trump to achieve his peace settlement.

Ultimately, the fate of the conflict will hinge on whether Trump can successfully maneuver Putin into a deal or if he, too, will come to realize that Russia’s leader is unlikely to compromise. If both parties are wrong in their assumptions, the conflict may persist longer than anticipated, with consequences for both Ukraine and international security.

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